|About This Video
|Dr Shane Oliver, Director of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital Investors shares his views on 2011.
1) What macroeconomic themes do you see happening in 2011? What are the big risks that might derail markets?
- Continuation of the global recovery: in developed markets, the recovery will be constrained (growth of 2%); in emerging world, the recovery will be strong (growth of 6%)
- For investors who want to get ahead of the curve, its time to get biased on Emerging markets, Asian shares and commodity markets, but to avoid US dollar which will have downwards pressure
2) Whats your outlook for equities versus fixed income in 2011?
- Bonds will have pretty low returns in 2011
- Equities will probably have double-digit growth
3) Is inflation is a near-term threat and how will this impact the market?
- In advanced countries, inflation will remain low; in emerging world, therell be an upward drift of inflation, however it wont be a big drag on equity markets
4) Whats your outlook for currency movements in 2011?
- The broad trend of USD will remain down
- Emerging market currencies remain their bull trend
5) Whats your most favoured market/sector? Why?
- Favourite region: Emerging markets (esp. Asian equities)
- Favourite single country: Chinese A/H shares, Hong Kong, India
- Favourite sector: consumer stocks (with less focus on exports, but more focus on intra-regional trade), banks
6) Which market/sector will you avoid in 2011?
- Government bonds in advanced countries
- Property stocks in parts of Asia where the governments are implementing tightening measures to control bubbles
||12 November 2010
||Ask The Experts: Shane Oliver: 2011 Will Be A Year For Equities